Why is it in the news?
Recent demographic assessments show India has transitioned to sub-replacement fertility levels.
The shift has major implications for demographic dividend, ageing population, and future workforce trends.
Category: Geography
Important Points:
● Replacement level fertility is about 2.1 children per woman.
● India’s Total Fertility Rate declined to 2.0 according to NFHS-5 (2019–21).
● Recent estimates (2023–2025) suggest TFR is around 1.9 births per woman.
● India’s fertility rate was about 6 children per woman during the early 1960s.
● The decline started from the 1970s due to family planning and socio-economic changes.
● Southern states and urban areas have TFR levels between 1.4 and 1.8.
● Some northern states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh remain closer to replacement levels.
● India’s population is projected to peak between 1.7–1.9 billion during the 2060s–2080s.
● Female education, urbanisation and access to contraception are key drivers of fertility decline.